• RankiaPro Europe
    • RankiaPro Spain
    • RankiaPro LATAM
    • RankiaPro Italy
SUBSCRIBE
Search
Close
  • Home
  • Insights
    EQUITIES
    EQUITIES
    FIXED INCOME
    FIXED INCOME
    ESG
    ESG
    INTERVIEWS
    INTERVIEWS
    MARKET OUTLOOK
    MARKET OUTLOOK
    ETF
    ETF

    Featured

    outside allianz GI
    Insights

    China Briefing

  • News
    APPOINTMENTS
    APPOINTMENTS
    LAUNCHES
    LAUNCHES
    ASSET MANAGERS
    ASSET MANAGERS

    FEATURED

    rankiapro-blackrock-lanza-nuevo-fondo-ucits-asignacion-global-sostenible-europa
    Launches

    BlackRock launches new Sustainable Global Allocation UCITS Fund in Europe

  • Magazine
    RANKIAPRO EUROPE
    RANKIAPRO EUROPE
    RANKIAPRO IBERIA
    RANKIAPRO IBERIA
  • Events
    RANKIA FUNDS EXPERIENCE
    EVENTS & CONFERENCE CALLS
    EVENTS & CONFERENCE CALLS
    RANKIAPRO MEETINGS
    RANKIAPRO MEETINGS
  • Podcast
  • MiFIDII Training
Menu
  • Home
  • Insights
    EQUITIES
    EQUITIES
    FIXED INCOME
    FIXED INCOME
    ESG
    ESG
    INTERVIEWS
    INTERVIEWS
    MARKET OUTLOOK
    MARKET OUTLOOK
    ETF
    ETF

    Featured

    outside allianz GI
    Insights

    China Briefing

  • News
    APPOINTMENTS
    APPOINTMENTS
    LAUNCHES
    LAUNCHES
    ASSET MANAGERS
    ASSET MANAGERS

    FEATURED

    rankiapro-blackrock-lanza-nuevo-fondo-ucits-asignacion-global-sostenible-europa
    Launches

    BlackRock launches new Sustainable Global Allocation UCITS Fund in Europe

  • Magazine
    RANKIAPRO EUROPE
    RANKIAPRO EUROPE
    RANKIAPRO IBERIA
    RANKIAPRO IBERIA
  • Events
    RANKIA FUNDS EXPERIENCE
    EVENTS & CONFERENCE CALLS
    EVENTS & CONFERENCE CALLS
    RANKIAPRO MEETINGS
    RANKIAPRO MEETINGS
  • Podcast
  • MiFIDII Training
Search
Close
Search
Close

Home | Raiffeisen Research CEE Banking Report 2020: Crisis and recovery mode at the same time

Raiffeisen Research CEE Banking Report 2020: Crisis and recovery mode at the same time

In 2020, non performing loans in Central Europe and Southeastern Europe will remain close to last year's lows of 2 to 5%.
Carla Solera

Investor Relation Specialist

2020/11/10

Raiffeisen Research has once again examined the banking markets of Central and  Eastern Europe in its CEE Banking Sector Report. After a record-breaking year 2019,  the market trends are still respectable in the light of the COVID crisis. In 2020, non performing loans in Central Europe (CE) and Southeastern Europe (SEE) will remain close to last year’s lows of 2 to 5 per cent, and return on equity in the Eastern European markets Russia and Ukraine was about 15 per cent in the first half of the  year.

The Raiffeisen analysts remain confident about the CEE banking market outlook

“The banking sectors in Central and Eastern Europe are in a solid position to  meet the challenges ahead. Compared to previous crises, we see a high degree of  accumulated resilience, which is based not least on the appropriate risk discipline of  recent years,” said Gunter Deuber, author of the study and head of the Economics, Interest Rates and FX Research department at Raiffeisen Research, on the occasion  of the publication of the CEE Banking Report.

“A solid local funding base is an  additional risk mitigating factor. Therefore, commercial banks can make a significant  contribution to cope with the external shock of the COVID crisis. Lending volume in  CEE will increase significantly in 2020 compared to the previous year and thus  exceed the growth rates of the past crises”

Johann Strobl, CEO of Raiffeisen  Bank International

Overall, the aftermath of the COVID crisis will keep the CEE banking sectors busy for  the next 12 to 24 months. Raiffeisen Research expects a significant and creeping  deterioration of asset quality in 2021 and possibly beyond. The current second  COVID wave brings additional risks for retail and SME portfolios. Overall, NPL ratios  are expected to increase to 4 to 8 per cent in the CE region and 7 to 10 per cent in  SEE. This would mean that the increases in SEE in particular will be much less  dramatic than ten years ago.  

raiffaisen-logo

In the crisis year 2020, new low interest rates have been achieved in CE and SEE,  which could remain at least until 2022. This is weighing on earnings, especially as  savers are now increasingly switching from savings to sight deposits. To this extent,  Eastern Europe (EE) could become an important source of earnings again for some leading CEE banks in 2020 and beyond, as was the case between 2011 and 2013. At  that time, the banking sectors of the CE/SEE region suffered from the double-dip  recession in the context of the euro area crisis, while Eastern Europe showed strong  profitability ratios. The Russian banking market in particular could thus continue to 

act as an important driver of profitability and innovation for the banking industry in  CEE. However, in the opinion of Raiffeisen Research analysts, competitive pressure is  increasing significantly here, for instance due to increasing market concentration or  the convergence of banking and online services. This also affects Western foreign  banks with their niche business models, and of course the (US) sanction risks that still  exist. Nevertheless, the Russian units of the leading Western banks in CEE remain a  valuable asset.

“We see disproportionately high market shares of Western banks in Russia in terms of foreign  currency deposits or turnover on corporate current accounts. This underlines the  service quality, brand awareness and systemic importance of Western banks in  Russia.“  

Ruslan Gadeev, Raiffeisen Research’s specialist for the Russian banking market

In the medium term, Gunter Deuber expects some easing on the interest rate front in  CE and SEE: “The earnings pressure from the now very low interest rates in Central  and Eastern Europe could ease slightly from 2022 onwards. This assumption is based  on the consideration that decisive monetary and fiscal policy stimuli at the national  and supranational levels in 2021 and 2022 could lead to tangible reflation in the  smaller and open economies in CE and SEE. Another positive aspect is that  unconventional monetary policy measures in CE and SEE do not yet have the same  market distorting effects as in Western Europe.”  

For the leading Austrian CEE banks, the development of the CE/SEE banking markets  remains a decisive driver, as they continue to represent almost 90 per cent of their  assets. According to the Raiffeisen Banking Sector Report, Austrian banks remain  market leaders in CEE. “Not taking into account the large state-owned banks in  Russia and Poland, Erste Group and RBI, as the regional number one and three,  have market shares of 7.4 and 6 per cent, respectively, in terms of CEE assets, with  UniCredit in between with 7.0 per cent”, says Deuber.  

  • Asset Managers, Market Outlook

Related Post

COVER-Luzysombra
  • Insights, Market Outlook

Lights and shadows of 2023 that won’t be easy…

Headwinds to the global economy will intensify into winter. Central Banks unfinished fight against inflation will draw on demand over 2023.
COVER IMAGE WEB POSTS - 2023-01-17T093124.191
  • Appointments, News

Natixis IM announces the appointments of two senior managers

Fabrice Chemouny and Christophe Lanne will start their new positions on March 1 and will report to the Head of Asset & Wealth Management.
COVER-Binoculares
  • Insights, Market Outlook

The allocator’s landscape: three areas of attention for 2023

Natasha Brook-Walters, co-head of investment strategy at Wellington Management, discusses the areas of the market to keep an eye on this year.
NEWSLETTER
If you want to keep up to date with the latest news from the asset management industry and all our events, subscribe now to our newsletter.
Subscribe

Last Tweets

14h

🗣️ @InvescoInsights launches global high yield debt ESG ETF

🔗#ETF #Launch #RankiaProEurope
...https://en.rankiapro.com/invesco-launches-global-high-yield-debt-esg-etf/

14h

🏗 Generali Real Estate expands its commercial real estate debt offering with a new fund

🔗#RealEstate #LaunchFund
... #RankiaProEurope
https://rankiapro.com/en/generali-real-estate-expands-commercial-real-estate-debt-offering-new-fund/

15h

🗣️The @ecb meets this Thursday, what can we expect?

🔗#ECB #inflation #Europe #RankiaProEurope
...https://en.rankiapro.com/ecb-meets-thursday-what-expect/

16h

🗣️ Private banking and the new generations

🔗#PrivateBanking #NewGenerations #RankiaProEurope
...https://rankiapro.com/en/private-banking-and-new-generations/

RankiaPro

  • Home
  • Insights
  • News
  • Magazine
  • Events
  • About us
Menu
  • Home
  • Insights
  • News
  • Magazine
  • Events
  • About us

Terms and uses

  • Cookies Policy
  • Privacy Policy
  • Disclaimer
Menu
  • Cookies Policy
  • Privacy Policy
  • Disclaimer

Contact

  • Email: [email protected]
  • Phone: (+34) 963 386 976
  • Mobile: (+34) 640 308 023

Newsletter

If you want to keep up to date with the latest news from the asset management industry and all our events, subscribe now.

Subscribe

All rights reserved © 2003 – 2021 Rankia S.L.

RankiaPro

  • Home
  • Insights
  • News
  • Magazine
  • Events
  • About us
Menu
  • Home
  • Insights
  • News
  • Magazine
  • Events
  • About us

Terms and uses

  • Cookies Policy
  • Privacy Policy
  • Disclaimer
Menu
  • Cookies Policy
  • Privacy Policy
  • Disclaimer

Contact

  • Email: [email protected]
  • Phone: 963 386 976 – 601 302 692

All rights reserved © 2003 – 2021 Rankia S.L.

Manage Cookie Consent
To provide you the best experience on our website, we use technologies like our own and third-party cookies for analytical purposes and to store device information. Consenting to these technologies will allow us to process data such as browsing behaviour or unique identifiers on this site. Not consenting or withdrawing consent may adversely affect certain features and functions.

To learn more, please read our Cookie Policy and Privacy Statement.
Functionality or Personalisation Cookies Always active
These cookies are necessary for the website to function or for the unique purpose of transmitting a communication over an electronic communications network, and cannot be disabled on our systems. Usually they are set up to respond to actions made by you to receive services, such as adjusting your privacy preferences or filling out forms. You can set your browser to block or alert you to the presence of these cookies, but some parts of the website will not work. These cookies allow the website to provide better functionality and personalisation. They may be set by us or by third parties whose services we have added to our pages. If you do not allow these cookies some of our services will not work properly.
Preferences
The technical storage or access is necessary for the legitimate purpose of storing preferences that are not requested by the subscriber or user.
Statistics Cookies
These cookies allow us to count traffic sources in order to measure and improve the performance of our website. Storage or technical access which is used exclusively for statistical purposes. The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for anonymous statistical purposes. Without a subpoena, voluntary compliance on the part of your Internet Service Provider, or additional records from a third party, information stored or retrieved for this purpose alone cannot usually be used to identify you.
Marketing Cookies
These cookies may be site-wide, placed by our advertising partners. These third parties may use them to create a profile of your interests and show you relevant adverts on other sites. If you do not allow these cookies, you may receive less targeted advertising.
Manage options Manage services Manage vendors Read more about these purposes
Cookie Settings
{title} {title} {title}
  • RankiaPro Europe
    • RankiaPro Spain
    • RankiaPro LATAM
    • RankiaPro Italy
Menu
  • Home
  • Insights
    • Equities
    • ESG
    • ETF
    • Fixed Income
    • Interviews
    • Market Outlook
  • News
    • Appointments
    • Asset Managers
    • Launches
  • Magazine
    • RankiaPro Europe
    • Magazine Iberia
  • Events
    • Rankia Funds Experience
    • Online Events
    • RankiaPro Meetings
  • Podcast
  • MIFIDII Training

Follow us on social media

Linkedin Twitter Youtube Flickr

NEWSLETTER

Subscribe

Book now

Raiffeisen Research CEE Banking Report 2020: Crisis and recovery mode at the same time